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POPULATION CONCERNS: Uneven growth and internal migration

By Mohan Guruswamy

POPULATION CONCERNS.

There was a fellow on an ET Now discussion on population who was all for an integrated national labor market, and not concerned about uneven population growth. He called any concerns "uneducated". He has good reason. He has made millions as a labor contractor providing low cost temps to employers.

Nevertheless the uneven growth of population must cause us concern. 

There are two sides to population growth.

The good news is that the TFR is now 2.2 just a fraction over the ideal 2.1, which is when population is stable. We will get there soon.

But the bad news is when you look at who is growing and who is not. Now look at who is growing. In Bihar, UP, MP and the rest of the cowbelt population will keep booming till  closer to the  next century.

This latest data also show that seven states — Uttar Pradesh (3.0), Bihar (3.2), Madhya Pradesh (2.7), Rajasthan (2.6), Assam (2.3), Chhattisgarh (2.4) and Jharkhand (2.5) — that account for about 45 per cent of the total population in the 2011 Census recorded a higher TFR than the national average. 

The bad news is that the high performing states are contracting. Look.

While relatively well off states in the south — Kerala (1.7), Tamil Nadu (1.6), Karnataka (1.7), Maharashtra (1.7), Andhra Pradesh (1.6) and Telangana (1.7) — demonstrate fertility rates below the rate required for population replacement, the states of West Bengal (1.6), Jammu and Kashmir (1.6) and Odisha (1.9), too, were estimated to have lower TFRs in 2017.

Internal migration is the major concern. Narendra Modi and Amit Shah rail against "ghusbaitis" meaning Bengali speaking Muslims. But here in the South "ghusbaitis" are Hindi speaking Hindus. In states like Kerala they are approaching 8-9% of the population.

In countries like China they have a system of internal passports called "Hukou" to regulate regional  migrations and responsibility for distribution of benefits.

 During the recent mass joblessness inflicted by the precipitous lockdown the subsequent misery on migrant labor, we had a situation where people deserving succor and benefits were not entitled to them in the places of work. A national identity like Aadhaar proved to be quite useless in these circumstances as it actually establishes domicile elsewhere.

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