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Q&A WITH CHINESE INTERLOCUTOR.

Q&A WITH CHINESE INTERLOCUTOR.
Posted with permission


 Dear Mr Mohan Guruswamy, 

How are you doing? Hope all is well.

We just learned that based on a statement from India's defence ministry, Indian troops thwarted China's "provocative" military movements and preempted the Chinese military activity on the southern bank of Pangong Lake. Some Indian media reports said there were "clashes" between the two sides. If confirmed, it'd be the first violent confrontation since the June 15 deadly scuffle. Pending further details of what actually happened, can I have your quick take of the latest development, what it means for the border standoff that began in early May and the deeply strained India-China relations? 

The latest incident occurred right after Xi Jinping convened a top-level national meeting on Tibet over the weekend, which was believed to be focused on border defences, frontier security along the border with India and quite probably the Dalai Lama's succession. Is it a coincidence that border tensions rise again after the Tibet meeting? What does the incident tell us about China's foreign policy thinking, when Beijing's adversarial tensions with Washington and its growing international isolation are believed to have put China on the defence,with top diplomats traveling in Asia and Europe to mend fences?

The Modi government has been criticized domestically for being not tough enough in its response to China's perceived aggression in the aftermath of the June 15 deadly clash. What do you think Modi should do in the face of Xi Jinping's assertiveness as well as the rapidly changing regional landscape?

Thank you very much for your help and I look forward to your response.

All the best,

Jiangtao
〰️〰️〰️〰️〰️〰️〰️〰️〰️〰️〰️〰️〰️〰️〰️〰️〰️〰️〰️〰️〰️
MOHAN GURUSWAMY

Dear Jiangtao 

1. I believe the PLA is attempting to change the alignment of the LAC unilaterally to coincide with China's perception of what the alignment should be. More details are awaited. But one thing is clear a landing across the lake was attempted.

2. Tibet must be uppermost on China's mind, as the time for a new Dalai Lama approaches. It is quite certain that there will be two Dalai's. This time the Tibetan leadership will not make the mistake of choosing a Dalai in Tibet, as was done for the Panchen. That young man just disappeared.

China can huff and puff but things in Tibet will erupt internally. India and China  have yet to learn how to deal with aspirations of smaller nationalities. I think the lessons of history are not imbibed properly, as both countries keep rewriting history to suit short term political convenience. 

3. There is anger in India because it is widely believed here that XI Jinping made a fool of Modi. The anger is as much at Modi who believed he had a "plus one" relationship with Xi. Half of India is laughing at him. We are still free to laugh at our leaders, unlike China where one could end up a rectification camp. 

4. I don't think India- China relations will ever get back to the heady Wuhan days - before the virus gave it a negative connotation. 

Mohan Guruswamy

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