Many faces, no big idea

https://m.timesofindia.com/many-faces-no-big-idea/articleshow/106131411.cms

Dec 19, 2023 | 20:21 IST

INDIA alliance leaders who met yesterday should know time is running out for mounting an effective 2024 campaign. BJP’s message is coherent and its leadership advantage is huge

The INDIA alliance meeting in Delhi is broadly an effort at political resuscitation. For three months, the opposition formation had virtually suspended such strategic level dialogue, as Congress prioritised the assembly elections.

Crucial loss of momentum| This could have been partly recovered with favourable assembly results. As it happened, INDIA’s leading partner Congress stands devastated after losing in three states to BJP, reinforcing perceptions of BJP’s dominance of the crucial Hindi belt. The scale of the mountain the opposition is forced to climb hence appears quite forbidding. So let’s start with a few points of consolation for the opposition.

Congress losses good for INDIA| These might paradoxically accelerate the process of forging crucial agreements over seat-sharing, as a humbled Congress and assertive allies now appear on more of an equal footing. Sure, there was an initial round of recriminations, which included a deferred alliance meeting as SP, TMC and JDU leaders refused to attend, expressing frustration with Congress’unilateralism. But most parties have now struck more conciliatory poses, particularly after the Parliament suspensions.

Southern gains| In some states, the INDIA alliance appears to be building momentum. In Maharashtra, the incumbent state BJP government finds itself embroiled over the Maratha quota stir and farmers unrest. Also, the weakened Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray camps have avoided any friction with a Congress that appears to be the dominant coalition partner in the state. In Telangana, the Congress victory provides an opportunity for the party to make significant gains in the state (from 3 seats last time), and perhaps even opens the door towards a position of some leverage in neighbouring Andhra Pradesh.

Karnataka complication| The addition of JDS has made NDA competitive again here. The downsides of an over-reliance on the caste census agenda have also spilt to the surface. Congress government is sitting on the local caste survey fearing a consolidation of dominant Lingayats and Vokkaligas in favour of BJP. Plus, Siddaramaiah (OBC leader) and DK Shivakumar (Vokkaliga leader) have struck discordant notes on the need for a caste census.

Bihar cheer| Meanwhile, Bihar represents the only state where principal alliance constituents (JDU and RJD) have actually started popular campaigns on the caste census agenda. In both Bihar and Maharashtra, state-level BJP has been forced into defensive stances on the issue of expanding OBC reservations.

But…missing narrative| Yet, these points are best seen as footnotes of the emerging campaign . The trouble for the opposition is that voters are still not aware of the main narrative of the INDIA alliance. If you ask BJP voters about the big messages of the NDA campaign, most would reply with India’s rising image on the world stage or the Ram Temple or welfare schemes of the central government. But opposition voters might struggle to come up with any shared message of the opposition platform. Except in Bihar, the caste census agenda has remained at the level of slogans, and hasn’t seen any grassroots mobilisation.

Missing campaign on price rise, jobs| The opposition has also consistently failed to mobilise people over widespread concerns over price rise and unemployment. In Madhya Pradesh, CSDS Lokniti post-poll survey showed more than half of all voters claimed to be dissatisfied with BJP over price rise and unemployment. Yet, the survey also showed the very same voters favoured BJP over Congress in voting choice.

Missing economic plan| Congress is still not trusted by many to provide better economic management than BJP. It has also struggled to come up with a catchy economic plan to turnaround India’s economic fortunes. In the absence of such a platform, talk of representation and social justice further drives the elite and middle class voters into BJP arms.

Popularity of national govt| In all the biannual India Today MOTN surveys since 2019, NDA share has never been projected to go below 298 seats. This represents both a dominant and stable social base: composed largely of urban middle class, upper castes and large swathes of OBCs. Over two-thirds of all voters (CSDS-Lokniti surveys) in the three Hindi belt states evinced satisfaction with the national government.

Popularity of Modi| Finally, BJP still enjoys the decisive leadership advantage. Indeed, there is no alternative leader close to Modi in popularity. The national elections are more presidential than state elections. Even when NDA lost Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan last time, it won 34 out of 36 seats in the Lok Sabha. In Rajasthan, a third of BJP voters claimed to have voted for PM Modi even in the state election. In the national elections, the PM is slated to drive an even bigger chunk into the BJP coalition.

To give a football analogy, we have entered the closing minutes of the match. However, it is the team that is badly trailing which appears to be the more fatigued: ambling around without either a coherent plan or a clear leadership apparatus to execute it. Even with a late closing of ranks at the end, the opposition might require some divine intervention to make a contest out of it.

The writer is a political researcher