Skip to main content

India’s GDP Growth Outlook

Projected Slowdown: India’s GDP growth is expected to decline to 6.4% in FY25, down from 8.2% in FY24, marking the lowest growth rate in four years (NSO estimates).

Contributing Factors:

  • Weak Manufacturing & Investment: Despite some support from agriculture, weak manufacturing and sluggish investment are major contributors.

  • Inflationary Pressures: Nominal GDP is projected to grow by 9.7%, indicating inflationary pressures.

  • Revised Projections: The Reserve Bank of India’s revised projection stands at 6.6%, slightly above the NSO's estimate.

Key Influences on Manufacturing Slowdown

  • Weak Global Demand: Reduced global economic activity, particularly due to China’s muted growth and geopolitical tensions, impacts demand for manufactured goods.

  • Commodity Price Declines: Falling prices of essential commodities, including metals and oil, affect production costs and profitability.

  • Trade Tensions: Ongoing trade disputes, such as the U.S.-China trade war, create uncertainty and disrupt supply chains.

  • Inflation & Economic Instability: Rising inflation and broader economic instability challenge manufacturers’ efficiency.

  • Supply Chain Issues: Disruptions in global supply chains hinder production and increase operational costs.

Influences on Investment Slowdown

  • Economic Policy Uncertainty: Heightened uncertainty regarding domestic policies leads to delays and cancellations of investment projects.

  • Weak Expenditure: Both private and government capital expenditure have contracted sharply.

  • Monetary Policy Tightening: Tighter monetary policy by the Reserve Bank of India dampens consumption and investment.

  • Global Economic Factors: Fluctuations in global interest rates and geopolitical tensions add uncertainties to investment decisions.

  • Cyclical Slowdown: The economy’s cyclical slowdown discourages new investments.

India’s Comparative Growth Outlook for FY25

  • Global Average: India’s projected growth of 6.4% is significantly higher than the global average of 2.7%.

  • United States: The U.S. is projected to grow at 2.5%.

  • Euro Area: The eurozone's growth is anticipated at just 0.8%.

  • China: China’s growth is projected at 4.5%, lagging behind India’s forecast.

Overall, India's growth outlook for FY25 positions it favorably against both developed and emerging economies.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Helen Mirren once said: Before you argue with someone, ask yourself.......

Helen Mirren once said: Before you argue with someone, ask yourself, is that person even mentally mature enough to grasp the concept of a different perspective. Because if not, there's absolutely no point. Not every argument is worth your energy. Sometimes, no matter how clearly you express yourself, the other person isn’t listening to understand—they’re listening to react. They’re stuck in their own perspective, unwilling to consider another viewpoint, and engaging with them only drains you. There’s a difference between a healthy discussion and a pointless debate. A conversation with someone who is open-minded, who values growth and understanding, can be enlightening—even if you don’t agree. But trying to reason with someone who refuses to see beyond their own beliefs? That’s like talking to a wall. No matter how much logic or truth you present, they will twist, deflect, or dismiss your words, not because you’re wrong, but because they’re unwilling to see another side. Maturity is...
Post a Comment
Read more

The battle against caste: Phule and Periyar's indomitable legacy

In the annals of India's social reform, two luminaries stand preeminent: Jotirao Phule and E.V. Ramasamy, colloquially known as Periyar. Their endeavours, ensconced in the 19th and 20th centuries, continue to sculpt the contemporary struggle against the entrenched caste system. Phule's educational renaissance Phule, born in 1827, was an intellectual vanguard who perceived education as the ultimate equaliser. He inaugurated the inaugural school for girls from lower castes in Pune, subverting the Brahminical hegemony that had long monopolized erudition. His Satyashodhak Samaj endeavoured to obliterate caste hierarchies through radical social reform. His magnum opus, "Gulamgiri" (Slavery), delineated poignant parallels between India's caste system and the subjugation of African-Americans, igniting a discourse on caste as an apparatus of servitude. Periyar's rationalist odyssey Periyar, born in 1879, assumed the mantle of social reform through the Dravidian moveme...
Post a Comment
Read more

AI & Higher Education: The Empty Classroom

  ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE & HIGHER EDUCATION The Empty Classroom When students outsource learning to AI and companies cut the engineers who know better, both ends of the talent pipeline fray at once. India is not watching from a safe distance. Chuppala Nagesh Bhushan At the University of California, Berkeley, something unremarkable happened in spring 2026: a professor held office hours. The unremarkable part was that nobody came. Dan Garcia, who teaches CS 10, a broad introductory computing course popularly called “The Beauty and Joy of Computing,” found his calendar conspicuously clear at the very moment his gradebook became conspicuously alarming. Of the students who sat CS 10’s final examination, 35.3% received an F—five times the historical norm of roughly 7%. Two other courses in Berkeley’s elite Electrical Engineering and Computer Sciences department suffered similarly: 10.6% of CS 61A students failed, and 16.8% of those in EECS 127, an upper-division optimi...
1 comment
Read more