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The Economics of Population Growth

 By Mohan Guruswamy

Context:

  • In 2005, during the release of "Religious Demography of India" by the RSS-affiliated Centre for Policy Studies, former RSS Sarsanghchalak KS Sudarshan encouraged Hindus to have larger families due to concerns over the population growth rates of Muslims and Christians.

Population Trends:

  • Since 1951, Muslims in India have grown at a faster rate than Hindus.

    • 1951-61: Muslims grew by 24.9%, Hindus by 18.6%.

    • 1991-2001: Adjusted growth rate for Muslims was 29.3%, Hindus 20.0%.

RSS Perspective:

  • RSS fears Hindu population being overtaken by Muslims are not supported by data.

  • Even if trends continue, it would take 247 years for Indian Muslims to catch up with Hindus in numbers.

  • RSS has enlarged India in its projections, including Pakistan and Bangladesh.

Family Planning Stance:

  • Former Chairman of All-India Muslim Personal Law Board, Maulana Rabey Hasni Nadwi, opposed family planning in Islam.

  • Contradicts practices in Islamic republics like Iran, Indonesia, Egypt, Pakistan, and Bangladesh which encourage family planning.

Population Projections:

  • India's population growth is expected to taper off around 2060.

  • BIMARU states (Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh) will continue growing till 2091.

  • Muslim growth to level off around 2091, reaching 18.8% of India's population.

Economic Concerns:

  • Three decades post-liberalization, a third of India's 1.4 billion population lives below the poverty line.

  • 2004-05 GDP: Rs.2,760,025 crores, with Agriculture at 27.3%, Industry 24.6%, and Services 48.2%.

Inequality and Growth:

  • Income inequality remains high, with Gini coefficient deteriorating from 0.345 (1971) to 0.674 (current).

  • Regional disparities are evident, with BIMARU states lagging behind southern states.

Dependency Ratio:

  • Population growth can contribute to economic growth.

  • India’s dependency ratio expected to be most favorable in Asia by 2020, presenting a demographic opportunity.

Agricultural Laborers:

  • The number of agricultural laborers has risen significantly, indicating severe poverty.

Segmental Attitudes:

  • Growth rates of SC and ST populations remain below Muslim growth trends.

  • Rural and urban economic conditions for Muslims and Hindus show similar challenges, with urban Muslims faring worse.

Caste Hindu Population Decline:

  • Proportion of caste Hindus has dropped from 61.97% (1961) to 56.05% (current).

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