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Putin’s Hybrid War Targets France with Sabotage and Terror

Paris is ground zero for Russia’s escalating covert ops, from assassinations to Islamist proxies, as the Kremlin aims to punish France’s support for Ukraine
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The big picture: Russia’s hybrid warfare has surged since its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, with France—Kyiv’s key backer—facing a barrage of espionage, sabotage, and proxy attacks. A four-part Intelligence Online investigation, citing French intelligence and European officials, reveals Moscow’s playbook: destabilize Europe to weaken NATO and Ukraine aid.

Why it matters: France’s €3.8 billion in military support and training for 40,000 Ukrainian troops have made it Putin’s top European target. With NATO logging a 300% spike in Russian-linked incidents since 2022, France bears over 20% of the hits. A successful attack could fracture Western unity and fuel far-right gains in France’s 2027 elections.
Hunting Exiles in Biarritz

What’s happening: Vladimir Osechkin, a Russian dissident exposing prison abuses via Gulagu.net, dodged a 2023 GRU assassination plot in Biarritz. French intelligence foiled a Chechen-run car bomb scheme, nabbing the operative “Voron” in Spain with Donbas-sourced explosives.

Details:
  • Motive: Silence Osechkin’s leaks on Wagner Group atrocities before Russia’s 2024 election.
  • Tactics: Over 50 dissidents in France faced Novichok poisonings and Telegram smear campaigns by GRU’s Unit 74455.
  • France’s response: Expelled 50 Russian diplomats (2022–2024); doubled surveillance on 200 “illegals.”
By the numbers:
  • 15 assassination attempts
  • 30 cyber-harassment cases
  • €50 million in protection costs
The bottom line: Russia’s targeting of exiles disrupts billions in laundered funds and sows fear among anti-Putin networks.
Olympic Chaos and Proxy Bombs

What’s happening: In June 2024, ex-Wagner mercenary Artem Dvirnik botched a bomb in a Paris airport hotel, exposing GRU plans to hit Olympic sites and arms factories. His phone tied him to July’s SNCF rail arsons, which stranded 800,000 travelers.  

Details:
  • Recruitment: Dvirnik got €15,000 in crypto via Telegram from GRU’s Unit 29155.
  • Context: FSB agent Kirill Gryaznov’s arrest for Olympic unrest plans signals Moscow’s shift to “disposable” proxies—Belarusians, radicals, veterans—post-diplomat expulsions.
  • Impact: €100 million in rail losses; €1.5 billion Olympic security bill.
What’s next: France is prepping for the 2028 Winter Olympics, flagging 100+ threats via its intelligence center.The bottom line: Russia’s reckless ops aim to maximize economic pain and erode public support for Ukraine.

 The Sabotage Gig Economy

What’s happening: Russia’s running a “dark-web marketplace” for sabotage, offering €5,000–€20,000 for arson or hacks. A 2024 IKEA fire in Lithuania, blamed on eco-activists, traced to Russian crypto.

Details:
  • Targets: Unemployed Eastern Europeans, eco-radicals, ex-mercenaries.
  • France hits: 2023 Dassault Aviation hack leaked Rafale blueprints; 2024 election meddling boosted anti-Ukraine rhetoric.
  • Countermeasures: France-Latvia task forces use AI to track Telegram; DGSI budget up 15% in 2025.
By the numbers:
  • 110 Europe-wide incidents (CSIS)
  • 70% of plots foiled (NATO)
  • €5 billion in damages since 2022
The bottom line: Moscow’s low-cost model—under $1 million per op—stretches Europe’s defenses thin.
  Islamist Proxies and the Terror Threat

What’s happening: French intelligence uncovered Russia’s “crime-terror nexus,” with the FSB recruiting ex-Islamic State fighters. A 2024 Marseille plot to bomb a Ukraine arms port was foiled, led by ex-IS operative “Abu Yusuf.”

Details:
  • Pipeline: 15 cases since 2023; 50–100 recruits active in Europe, trained in GRU camps near Rostov.
  • Tactics: Cash ($5,000–$20,000), fake passports, and “jihad vs. NATO” framing via FSB cutouts in Turkey and UAE.
  • Stakes: A strike could cost €10 billion in tourism and sway public opinion against Ukraine aid.
Zoom out: Russia’s playbook echoes its Chechnya ops and false claims blaming Kyiv for the 2024 Crocus attack (IS-K claimed). Macron warned in October 2025: “Russia’s shadow jihad threatens our republic.”

The bottom line: Moscow’s use of IS proxies risks a Bataclan-style attack, fracturing NATO unity.
What to Watch

Europe’s response: France leads with sanctions on FSB fronts, cyber-retaliations, and faster Ukraine arms. Ukraine’s GUR offers a playbook: real-time intel and transparency.

The stakes: Russia’s 110 kinetic incidents since 2022 cost Europe €5 billion. With its economy shrinking 1.2% in 2024, Moscow bets on chaos to divert Western resources.


What they’re saying: MI6 chief Richard Moore (2024): Russia’s “recklessness aims to sow fear and break our resolve.”

A major attack could boost France’s far-right in 2027, derailing NATO summits and Ukraine aid. Europe must sanction bolder and arm Kyiv faster—or risk Putin’s shadow war engulfing the continent

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